Gains for the Greens?

It’s not all bad news for the left on June 4th. Coverage of European Parliament elections tends to be dominated by stories of far-right and Europhobic gains. However, if the latest polls are to be believed, it looks like the Green Party may stand to be the real winners in the coming elections.

A poll to be published the day before the European elections suggests the battle for third place will be between the Green Party, the LibDems and UKIP.

In the new poll, conducted by ComRes (1), the Greens have overtaken the  LibDems for the first time since 1989. The poll suggests the Greens may be about to match their historic 1989 Euro-election vote of 15%. The poll shows support for the different parties as follows:

Conservative: 24%
Labour: 22%
UKIP: 17%
Green: 15%
Lib Dems: 14%
BNP 2%

If the poll proves accurate, the Greens will probably win seats in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, South West and Eastern regions plus Scotland, as well as holding existing seats in London and the South East. The Greens may scoop up a second seat in the South East, with Brighton councillor Keith Taylor joining party leader Caroline Lucas who was first elected in 1999.

Last Sunday’s Telegraph/ICM poll showed the Greens on 11%, ahead of UKIP nationally for the first time in the campaign. The Sunday Telegraph suggested that “the resurgent Greens” might win eight seats. This ComRes poll suggests that that number may be an underestimate.

1. Commissioned by the Green Party. Fieldwork carried out 29-31 May 2009.
Sample size 1,005 GB adults, polled by telephone.