Ok, so I’m making a few more bets on the election today. And here are the details:
1) I have hada fair bit of money on there being a hung parliament. I still think this is the most likely outcome, but in recent days there has been some speculation of a slim tory majority. Strangely, though, I could get 3.65 on the tories to get between 325 and 349 seats. So, while I am set to win £50 if there is a hung parliament, I can hedge my bets here with £10 on the tories to take these seats. The point of this bet is that I don’t actually lose any money if the tories get that slim majority but in the process I only make £10 less on my hung parliament bet if that comes in. The odds here are long, so I recommend this as a way to secure bets if you’re feeling edgy.
2) The odds on the lib-dem totals are all looking really long. I’ve put down £30 at varying odds to say they will get between 80 and 100 seats. At the very minimum I am getting about 2/1 here, which are strong enough odds for me in this market. I am currently figuring that I run a greater risk of them getting just under 80 seats, and may well put a bit of money on that later depending on what tonight’s polls look like, but for the moment these bets look quite good.
3) I’m not a massive fan of respect, but I guess it would be quite fun to see them win that seat in Birmingham. I reckon it will probably go lib dem, so I’ve put £20 on that giving me a £11 profit if they get in, and I’ve stuck a £10 bet on the respect at 6.8 to take the seat. So, I don’t make any money if the lib dems get in, but don’t lose any if Respect takes the seat. If they do take the seat I’m looking at £50 profit. Anyhow I reckon Respect will take enough Labour votes that it will mean Labour won’t be getting in here.
I’ll probably put a few more bets on throughout the day, depending on how I’m feeling.