Labour and the Lib Dems have nothing to gain from the Scottish independence referendum

It took a long time for me to start taking a proper interest in the now- looming prospect of Scottish independence. This was partly due to my vaguely assuming that just because there aren’t likely to be border raids between Cumbria and Dumfries and Galloway or a Berlin Wall-style division of Berwick-upon-Tweed it wouldn’t actually make that much difference, and partly because, as I’ve written previously, arguments for the value of national self-determination in the absence of an actual occupying force bent on suppressing it leave me somewhat cold: I can see why it’s important for the Palestines and South Sudans of this world, but Scotland just isn’t in quite the same league, oppression-wise. I more or less stand by the second of these, but with hindsight the first was seriously stupid.

At present there are 59 Scottish MPs (set to be reduced to 52 for the next election), only one of whom is a Conservative. Scotland hasn’t elected more than one Tory to (the UK) Parliament at a general election in twenty years. So a little under one in ten seats in the House of Commons is Scottish, virtually none of which are ever likely to be Conservative-held. Take those seats out of the equation and, as I’m far from the first to note, endless Tory majorities suddenly seem a much less remote prospect for the rest of us.

The Conservatives are well aware of this, of course, but will never mention it openly, partly to maintain the absurd pretence that this is somehow an issue which transcends party politics, partly (probably) for fear that this would lead to a no vote in the independence referendum out of sheer anti-Tory Caledonian bloody-mindedness, and partly because there are plenty of Conservatives who take the “and Unionist” bit of their party’s full name seriously and are opposed to Scottish independence. Nicholas Watt suggests that David Cameron falls into this last category, but that George Osborne, who has been heavily involved in the government’s discussions with Alex Salmond and the SNP on the independence referendum, very definitely doesn’t.  As such, he argues:

Osborne probably believes he has embarked on a win win strategy. He either wins by being remembered as the man who kept the UK together. Or he wins by being remembered as the man who kept the Tories in power for a generation.

What this overlooks, though, is the fact that high-profile Conservative involvement in a no campaign in the independence referendum is likely to backfire because of the persistent hatred for the party of Thatcher north of the border. They’re already being told by Labour and the Lib Dems that they need to start being a bit quieter on the issue. So the Conservatives probably won’t get that much credit for a no vote in the referendum; the pro-unionist campaign will have to be a Labour- and Lib Dem-led effort, but that could still be very good for the Conservatives. They get to remain serenely above the fray, while the three biggest parties to their left expend time, money and party activists’ goodwill scrapping with each other. Don’t forget that Alex Salmond was making very friendly noises towards Labour in the aftermath of the last general election, obviously seeing the advantage of some degree of cooperation between the parties of the fragmented British centre-left. If Scotland votes to stay part of the UK, the Tories may not get the credit but it’s unlikely anyone else would gain much from it either – both Labour and the Lib Dems will stick to the “it’s not about party advantage” line, so it’ll be hard for either of them to make narrow political gains from it when they have to at least give the appearance of putting country over party. If independence gets a thumbs-up from the Scottish people, on the other hand, then both the Liberals and Labour will be damaged by their campaign’s failure (in much the same way that Clegg and co. were over the no to AV), and the odds will now be stacked against either of them making any kind of electoral breakthrough against the Conservatives. It’s not so much a win-win for Cameron and Osborne as it is a lose-lose for Miliband and Clegg.