Labour and the unions: reasons not to be cheerful
Paul Kenny is right. The Tories will be rubbing their hands with glee at the current spat between Labour and the unions. But they won’t be doing so simply because Ed Balls’ now-notorious speech to the Fabian Conference is a sign that Labour support the government’s cuts agenda – while neither the speech itself nor Balls’ economic policy more generally are music to the ears of the left (Andy Newman has a good response to it), he didn’t say anything anywhere near as austerity-friendly as he was made out to have done by the papers, a point which Carl makes painstakingly clear.
No, what will be making Conservative Central Office very happy is the prospect of the week’s political news being dominated by Labour and the unions airing their dirty laundry in public, on the back of several previous weeks of rumours and gossip-mongering about Ed Miliband’s leadership. In the short term, that means less public and media attention on our still-screwed economy or the effects of the cuts on the vulnerable. In the longer term, and more seriously, it raises for the Tories the enticing prospect of a divided, weakened opposition.
Labour is currently around £10 million in debt, according to the latest available figures, and of the £3.5 million they received in donations in the third quarter of 2011, over £3.1 million – around 90% – was from trade unions. That figure might be higher than usual for Labour, but it’s pretty clear that the party relies very heavily on the unions for money. ( “Sources” apparently claimed to the Guardian that the real figure was less than 50% – but even if it was, a share of – say – 40% would still be pretty damned essential for a party as cash-strapped as Labour.)
So if Unite or the GMB (the largest and third-largest unions respectively) were to decide to disaffiliate from Labour, as seems possible, then Labour would – without wishing to get too technical – be financially screwed. So they’d be less able to effectively oppose the government (and yes, I’m well aware they could have been doing a hell of a better job anyway, but that’s by the by) and in particular less well-placed to campaign at the next general election, making it more likely that the Tories will win. If Labour takes a more leftwing line which placates the unions (which is most likely Len McCluskey and Paul Kenny are hoping their sabre-rattling will achieve), this will be the cue for the rightwing press to wheel out all the old clichés about Ed Miliband being the unions’ puppet (because adopting policies which please the millions of working people who voted for you and democratically choose to fund your party is tantamount to craven surrender to Bolshevism, naturally.) And if Labour doesn’t adopt a leftier economic policy and the unions still don’t disaffiliate, then we’re left with the status quo, only with the unions looking weaker and Labour having pissed off just a little bit more of their core vote. It’s not a cheerful trilemma.
